Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
